西北太平洋热带气旋源地30 a的季节和年代际变化

doi:10.13634/j.cnki.mes20150514

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摘要西北太平洋是生成热带气旋频率最高的海域,研究西北太平洋的热带气旋对全球和区域气候变化具有重要意义。本文使用1981~2010年30 a的热带气旋资料,采用最近邻分级空间聚类法,对西北太平洋热带气旋源地进行空间聚类,并分析了西北太平洋热带气旋的产生频数与空间分布的季节差异和年代际差异。结果表明:(1)西北太平洋热带气旋源地有三个热点区(聚集区):南海的中北部、菲律宾群岛以东和马里亚纳群岛附近。(2)夏季和秋季是热带气旋的高发期,冬季和春季较贫乏,季节差异明显。空间分布也具有显著的季节差异,春季开始向西北偏移,秋季开始向东南偏移,冬、春季气旋仅分布在10°N以南,夏季分布范围最广,可到达北纬40°N左右。(3)西北太平洋热带气旋在厄尔尼诺年生成较少,拉尼娜年生成较多;年频数在1995年前后有显著差异,1995年之前年频数较高,1995年以后年频数明显下降;空间分布上,1995年以后,热带气旋源地的聚集区较1995年之前有向西北偏移的趋势。

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关键词：西北太平洋热带气旋源地空间聚类年代际差异季节差异

Abstract：Tropical cyclones mostly originate the northwestern Pacific (NWP), which have great significance on global and regional climate changes.However, many documents mainly have focused on the changes of tropical cyclone in NWP with little spatial locations, and their methods are descriptive statistics.Thus, this paper uses the nearest neighbor hierarchical clustering method to gather the tropical cyclone genesis regions in NWP during the period of 1981 to 2010.Main results are summarized as follows.(1) Northern South China Sea, east of the Philippine islands and near the Mariana islands are three high frequent occurrence regions.(2) Cyclones mostly occur in summer and autumn, especially in July to September, and their spatial distribution widely ranges from 5°N to 40°N.A few cyclones generate in spring and summer, locating at south of 10°N.(3) Tropical cyclones in El Niño are fewer than in La Niña years.Annual numbers of tropical cyclones are obviously different before and after 1995.The annual frequency in the period of 1981~1995 is higher than the period of 1996~2010.In addition, in the later period, the locations of tropical cyclones migrate northeasterly.

Key words： northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone genesis regions spatial clustering seasonal to decadal variations

收稿日期: 2014-09-09;

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基金资助:

中国科学院对地观测与数字地球科学中心主任创新基金"数字地球框架下面向全球变化的太平洋遥感问题研究"(Y2ZZ18101B);国家自然科学基金项目(NO.41371385)

通讯作者: 董庆(1965-),男,研究员,博士生导师,E-mail:dongqing@radi.ac.cn E-mail: dongqing@radi.ac.cn

作者简介:秦丽娟(1990-),女,河南周口人,理学硕士生,主要从事海洋遥感方面的研究,E-mail:qinlj@radi.ac.cn

引用本文:

秦丽娟,董庆,薛存金. 西北太平洋热带气旋源地30 a的季节和年代际变化[J]. 海洋环境科学, 2015, 34(5): 723-728.

QIN Li-juan,DONG Qing,XUE Cun-jin. Seasonal to decadal variations of tropical cyclone genesis in Northwestern Pacific in recent three decades[J]. Marine Environmental Science, 2015, 34(5): 723-728.

链接本文:

http://hyhjkx.nmemc.org.cn/CN/10.13634/j.cnki.mes20150514 或 http://hyhjkx.nmemc.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V34/I5/723

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