中国海水养殖污染负荷估算

doi:10.13634/j.cnki.mes20160101

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摘要近年来,在国民对水产品消费需求的驱动下,中国海水养殖规模不断增加,加剧沿岸水域富营养化程度。本文基于水产养殖排污系数调查手册和渔业统计年鉴,估算我国海水养殖过程中污染物排放总量,建立养殖总产量与污染负荷总量之间的回归关系,使用蒙特卡罗方法量化参数的不确定性并进行情景模拟。结果表明:2012年,中国海水养殖过程向相关海域排放TN、TP、COD、Cu和Zn分别为17414 t、3146 t、55503 t、53 t以及242 t;各沿海省份污染负荷总量与养殖总产量存在线性关系,其总氮、总磷和COD的相关系数r分别为0.974、0.975和0.996;敏感性分析表明,养殖类型是影响污染物排放总量的最重要因素。优化养殖类型和调整养殖方法是减少我国海水养殖污染负荷的重要途径。

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	陈一波
	宋国宝
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关键词：海水养殖污染负荷总量不确定性蒙特卡罗模拟中国

Abstract：Increased pollutant emission from aquaculture has exacerbated the occurrence of eutrophication in recent years,with increased consumption of aquatic products in China.Based on national surveyed coefficients of pollutant emission frommariculture and statistics of aquatic products,this study estimated the total pollutant loadings of mariculture at both provincial and national levels,and analyzed the correlation between maricultureproduction and pollutant loadings.Monte Carlo simulation was performed to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify critical factors,on which scenario analysis were further conducted.Results indicate that the national pollutant loadings of total nitrogen,total phosphorus,COD,copper and zinc are 17414 t,3146 t,55503 t,53 t and 242 t,respectively,in 2012.A linear correlation between pollutant loadings and mariculture output was observed,with high correlation coefficients for total nitrogen (0.974),total phosphorus (0.975) and COD (0.996).Sensitivity analysis results show that among all the factors,mariculture model is the key influencing uncertainty.Improvement of cultivation model is needed for the sustainable development for mariculture in China.

Key words： mariculture pollution loading uncertainty Monte Carlo China

收稿日期: 2014-12-11;

PACS:

基金资助:

国家重点基础研究计划973课题(2013CB430403)

通讯作者: 宋国宝,E-mail:gb.song@dlut.edu.cn E-mail: gb.song@dlut.edu.cn

作者简介:陈一波(1990-),男,山西大同人,硕士,主要研究方向为环境生态,E-mail:ybochen@mail.dlut.edu.cn

引用本文:

陈一波,宋国宝,赵文星等. 中国海水养殖污染负荷估算[J]. 海洋环境科学, 2016, 35(1): 1-6,12.

CHEN Yi-bo,SONG Guo-bao,ZHAO Wen-xing et al. Estimating pollutant loadings from mariculture in China[J]. Marine Environmental Science, 2016, 35(1): 1-6,12.

链接本文:

http://hyhjkx.nmemc.org.cn/CN/10.13634/j.cnki.mes20160101 或 http://hyhjkx.nmemc.org.cn/CN/Y2016/V35/I1/1

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