The impact of sea-level rise superimposed storm surges on China's ocean economy in 2050
ZHANG Ping1,2, KONG Hao3,4, WANG Dai-feng3, PENG Ben-rong3
1. China Institute for Marine Affairs, Beijing 100161, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Maritime Right, Wuhan 430072, China;
3. Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China;
4. Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Management Technology Study, Xiamen 361013, China
Abstract：To assess the impact of storm surges combined with sea level rise on China's marine economy,this study utilizes the ArcGIS flood model,the results of the spatial visualized GDP mapped through luminous space remote sensing,and the forecast of the growth of China's marine economy by 2050.We assessed three scenarios of the impact of sea level rise combined with the effect of storm surge on the marine economies of China's coastal provinces.The simulation results show:the scenario that sea level rise combined with storm surges and the CHmax-0.3 m astronomical tide causes the biggest loss in 2050,which is 3.544459 trillion yuan,accounting for 9.39% of the total output of the marine economy of China; under the CHmax-0.3 m scenario,in 2050,Liaoning Province has the largest proportion of losses,followed by Guangdong,Guangxi and Fujian; under the three scenarios of 0.3 m sea level rise,Guangdong,Liaoning,Jiangsu,Shandong are the four biggest provinces in terms of marine economic output losses.
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