Abstract：Water pollution of East China Sea is very serious, especially in the surrounding sea waters of Yangtze estuary, Hangzhou bay and Xiangshan harbour.The water quality of these areas is worse than the Sea Water Quality Standard Category Ⅳ and inorganic nitrogen is the main pollution factor .Accurate prediction of the future trends and risk spatial distribution of inorganic nitrogen could provide an important tool for reducing and managing the marine pollution. In this paper, IDW interpolation and regression analysis were used to predict the development trend of the inorganic nitrogen in East China Sea, based on the monitoring data of the inorganic nitrogen from the year 2002 to 2013.The content of the inorganic nitrogen over the next three years was predicted, furthermore, the pollution risk of inorganic nitrogen in East China Sea was divided into four zones with risk degrees of high, medium, lower and lowest, which could provide a scientific base for controlling the inorganic nitrogen pollution of East China Sea.
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