中国沿海11省市海洋产业结构与海域承载力脉冲响应分析

Impulse response analysis of marine industrial structure and carrying capacity of marine region in eleven provinces of China's coastal areas

摘要: 运用中国沿海11省市1996~2014年的海洋产业结构和海域承载力的相关数据，基于VAR（vector autoregression）模型，综合运用ADF（augmented dickey fuller）检验、协整检验、脉冲响应和方差分解，研究其海洋产业结构与海域承载力综合水平之间的相互关系。结果显示：三大区域的海洋产业结构与海域承载力间互为因果关系。通过分析三者的脉冲响应图可见，海洋产业结构对海域承载力存在正负向影响程度不同且存在明显差异。最后通过方差分析分析两者之间影响波动的情况。

Abstract: Based on the related data of the marine industrial structure and the carrying capacity of marine region in 11 coastal provinces and cities for 1996-2014 years, applying the VAR model, ADF test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to study the relationship between the marine industrial structure and the comprehensive level of the carrying capacity of marine region. The results show that there is a causal relationship between the marine industrial structure and the carrying capacity of the three regions. By analyzing the impulse response diagram of the three areas, it can be discovered that there are different positive and negative influences on the carrying capacity of the marine industrial structure. Finally, by the variance analysis to study the effect of fluctuation between the two issues.