Abstract: Based on the monitoring data of Bohai sea water quality from 2006 to 2013,Bohai eutrophication status and changing trend were evaluated using eutrophication index method.Then the eutrophication risk probability in the next five years was predicted through regression analysis method.The results showed that the high risk eutrophication areas in Bohai Sea were mainly distributed in Pulandian Bay,Liaodong Bay,Yongdingxin Estuary,Haihe Estuary,Majia Estuary,the bottom of Laizhou Bay.The dominant contribution factors were inorganic nitrogen,active phosphate and chemical oxygen demand.In order to avoid the occurrence of eutrophication or reduce its occurrence probability,the total quantity control measures of dominant contribution factors should be put forward in the high risk zonations of eutrophication.