Abstract: Increased pollutant emission from aquaculture has exacerbated the occurrence of eutrophication in recent years,with increased consumption of aquatic products in China.Based on national surveyed coefficients of pollutant emission frommariculture and statistics of aquatic products,this study estimated the total pollutant loadings of mariculture at both provincial and national levels,and analyzed the correlation between maricultureproduction and pollutant loadings.Monte Carlo simulation was performed to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify critical factors,on which scenario analysis were further conducted.Results indicate that the national pollutant loadings of total nitrogen,total phosphorus,COD,copper and zinc are 17414 t,3146 t,55503 t,53 t and 242 t,respectively,in 2012.A linear correlation between pollutant loadings and mariculture output was observed,with high correlation coefficients for total nitrogen (0.974),total phosphorus (0.975) and COD (0.996).Sensitivity analysis results show that among all the factors,mariculture model is the key influencing uncertainty.Improvement of cultivation model is needed for the sustainable development for mariculture in China.