Study on probabilistic forecasting model of wind field in the Bohai Sea

Wind is one of the key dynamic factors for the drift and diffusion of oil spill in ocean.Accurate prediction of the wind field in the oil spill area is the basis of the forecast of oil slick transport.This paper analyzes the historical wind data of the Bohai Sea.According to the correlation of different regional wind and the difference of wind in different periods, the regional division and time division of Bohai wind are respectively carried out.According to the probability with which the wind changed between two specified directions and the mean duration of a wind event, the probability prediction model of wind field in Bohai Sea is established.The statistical parameters of the stochastic wind time series generated by the prediction model that contained a similar energy level, periodicity, and direction variability to the archived wind data are in good agreement with that of the wind data of corresponding historical period.It is a good foundation for increasing the accuracy of oi1 spill predicting and modeling, and is also a reference for other computing in ocean hydrodynamics.