XU Li-cun, YANG Hong, WANG Chun-feng. Study on oil spill risk assessment of oil production platforms in the East China Sea[J]. Chinese Journal of MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, 2020, 39(2): 260-267. DOI: 10.12111/j.mes20200214
Citation: XU Li-cun, YANG Hong, WANG Chun-feng. Study on oil spill risk assessment of oil production platforms in the East China Sea[J]. Chinese Journal of MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, 2020, 39(2): 260-267. DOI: 10.12111/j.mes20200214

Study on oil spill risk assessment of oil production platforms in the East China Sea

  • The oil spill accident occurred in the East China Sea will have serious impact on environment and economic.It also has great practical significance to evaluate the oil spill risk.According to the current situation of the oil production platforms in the East China Sea, the paper constructs a risk evaluation index system by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and evaluates the oil spill risk comprehensively with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and Monte Carlo method.Oil spill risk is classified into five grades (minimal, small, medium, large, maximum) represented by (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) respectively.The results show that the oil spill risk level of the oil production platform in the East China Sea is between 1.59~3.06, the average is 2.28, and the overall risk level is medium low.The probability of oil spill risk grade of oil production platform in the East China Sea is 11.37% in the range of 1.59~2.00.The probability of risk rating between 2.00~2.50 is 69.92%.The probability of risk rating between 2.50~3.00 is 18.74%.The probability of risk rating above 3.00 is 0.06%.Among the first class indexes, the geological oil spill takes the biggest risk, and the platform fatigue aging is the most important subdivision factor affecting the oil spill risk grade of oil platforms in the East China Sea, and its sensitivity reached 64.60%.The evaluation method is of scientific significance to the overall risk situation of offshore platform, and the reasonable evaluation can quantitatively evaluate the main influencing factors, in order to enrich the management and decision-making methods for offshore oil platform in China, providing more theoretical basis and technical support.
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