Uncertainty analysis on ecosystem-based carrying capacity of island: A case study in the Southern Island Group of Miaodao Archipelago

Using the conceptual framework of indicator system for reference, a method was proposed in this paper to evaluate the ecosystem-based carrying capacity of island (EBCCI) from the perspective of human-nature coupled ecosystem.The fundamental and realized carrying capacities of island (FCCI and RCCI) were integrated to evaluate EBCCI by emphasizing the interdependences between natural system and social system.A case study was conducted in the Southern Island Group of Miaodao Archipelago, the typical archipelago of the north of China located in the intersection of the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.To improve the accuracy of evaluation, an uncertainty analytical method based on varying model parameters was proposed, and the measurement of the uncertainty level was also proposed corresponding to different confidence levels.Results showed that the uncertainty level of the RCCI was 4.4%, of FCCI was 4.68%, and of SSCI was 2.51%, and the value range of RCCI was 0.6908 to 0.7348 out of 1, of FCCI was 0.7949 to 0.8417 out of 1, and of SSCI was 0.8612 to 0.8863 out of 1, respectively, both with confidence levels of 95%, which showed that the socioeconomic development supported the realization of fundamental carrying capacity well in Southern Island Group of Miaodao Archipelago.A brand new carrying capacity evaluation method was proposed in this paper by introducing the uncertainty analysis of model parameters.A value range of carrying capacity instead of a single value was given through the uncertainty analysis based on the model parameters, which made the results more credible.