Abstract：Taking the advantages of stochastic and deterministic scenario simulation methods,a comprehensive approach for predictive assessment of potential pollution and hazard resulting from marine oil spill accidents was developed,both the flowchart and the main indicators of this approach were presented.The Liaodong bay in Bohai Sea was selected as study area to demonstrate the practicability of this approach.An offshore platform was selected as spill site,seven national marine protected areas (MPAs) in Liaodong bay were selected as receptors,and subsea pipeline oil spill was selected as hypothetical accident .Then,with support of current field data generated by hydrodynamic model and predicted wind field data of year 2012-2013,the stochastic simulations were carried out to predict the spatial distribution of the pollution probability and hazard indicators under annual statistical condition,and to assess the overall oil spill pollution and hazard risks of the study area.The deterministic scenario simulations were used to predict the oil spill trajectories,pollution areas,minimum arrival times of oil drifting to the seven MPAs under unfavorable wind conditions,and to assess the pollution risks for specific sensitive protection targets.The above studies show that,the comprehensive approach consisting of the two type of simulations can provide more overall and objective oil spill predictive assessment results,and help support the risk assessment conclusions and put forward reasonable countermeasures for risk management.
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